The global fertility rate may drop below the level needed to sustain the human population as soon as 2030, according to a new model. This tipping point is much sooner than other predictions, which estimated the tipping point to be around 2040 or 2056. The drop in fertility rates is attributed to factors such as higher education levels, rising incomes, and expanded access to contraceptives. Many countries, including India and Australia, are already below this level.
The United States, for example, is at 1.6 instead of the requisite 2.1, and China and Taiwan are hovering at about 1.2 and one, respectively. A drop below replacement fertility does not mean the global population will immediately fall. It will likely take about 30 additional years, or roughly how long it takes for a new generation to start to reproduce, for the global death rate to exceed the birth rate.
This trend points to a world increasingly split between low-fertility countries, where a diminishing number of young people support a burgeoning population of seniors, and high-fertility countries, largely poorer sub-Saharan African nations, where continued population growth could hamper development. Estimating when the world will reach the turning point is challenging. However, with each passing year, it’s becoming clearer that fertility is dropping faster than expected.
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