Artificial Intelligence (AI) has the potential to drive explosive economic growth, akin to the economic effects of the Industrial Revolution. This growth could be driven by three primary factors: the scalability of an AI labor force restoring a regime of increasing returns to scale, the rapid expansion of an AI labor force, and a massive increase in output from rapid automation occurring over a brief period of time.
However, there are several counterarguments to this explosive growth theory, including regulatory hurdles, production bottlenecks, alignment issues, and the pace of automation. While these arguments are significant, most are unlikely to be decisive factors. The intensity of regulatory responses to AI, physical bottlenecks in production, the economic value of superhuman abilities, and the rate at which AI automation could occur are key questions that remain unanswered.
Despite these uncertainties, the potential for AI to drive explosive economic growth seems plausible, especially if AI can broadly substitute for human labor. However, high confidence in this claim is currently unwarranted given the existing gaps in knowledge and understanding.
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